Financial Commentary 7/6/2016

BREXIT and European Banks

While the initial impact of the BREXIT vote on June 23 was uniformly negative for equity markets, the S&P 500 in the United States has since recovered its losses and the FTSE 100 in London has moved higher.  Other European stock markets remain below pre-BREXIT vote levels while Asian stock markets have had mixed results.

"What Went Wrong?" slide presentation by David Rosenberg, economist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates

David Rosenberg provides a good overview of the US and global economic situation.  The slide presentation is free and available here:



Jim Rickards: The Case for Gold at US$10,000 per ounce

CBC News has a short video interview with Jim Rickards, author of The New Case for Gold.  You may view it here:


Financial Articles of Interest

Some financial articles of interest follow:

AB Global Economic Outlook

AB (formerly Alliance Bernstein) has published their global economic outlook (May 2016).  AB is currently forecasting GDP growth in 2016 of 2.5%.  Latin America is the only region where they are forecasting negative GDP growth of -0.7%.

Financial Commentary - April 6, 2016

Financial Commentary - April 6, 2016

Atlanta Fed GDP Now

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta maintains a model to forecast GDP.  Its forecast for the first calendar quarter of 2016 has dropped from about 2.0% on March 15 to 0.4% as of April 5.

CAPE Ratios - chapter from upcoming book

CAPE Ratios

“Our job is to find a few intelligent things to do, not to keep up with every damn thing in the world.” – Charlie Munger, Vice Chairman of Berkshire Hathaway


Grant Williams on Gold and Michael Belkin on Financial Markets

There is a good presentation on gold by Grant Williams: "Nobody Cares - This is the presentation I gave at Mines & Money in London in early December laying out why I believe the gold price is languishing despite a wealth of what would ordinarily be positive catalysts."  28 minutes.

Financial Market Commentary - January 7, 2016

US Economy

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) provides results of their monthly survey which is considered a key leading indicator.  ISM surveys 400 purchasing managers in the US manufacturing sector regarding new orders, employment, prices, and inventories.  An index of 50 would indicate that on average business conditions remain the same compared to the prior mont

If Factor Returns are Predictable, Why Is There an Investor Return Gap - Research Affiliates article

Jason Hsu of Research Affiliates has a good article that supports contrarian strategies.  Low-volatility stocks are expensive and value stocks are cheap today versus historical norms.

Investing versus Flipping - Research Affiliates article

Chris Brightman of Research Affiliates has written a good article regarding use of the CAPE ratio and relative valuations.  He compares property prices in Atlanta to Orange County for an illustration.  He also compares the relative valuations of equity markets: US (large cap), EAFE (Europe, Australasia and the Far East), and Emerging Markets.  The web link is here:

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